Originally Posted by
Buttons.
Unfortunately I worry that (and this isn't a stab at American people are anyone else) that unfortunately as a very well publicised ally of America, which is a country very many others seem to want to take down a peg or two that we are actually more at risk of attack in some respects, also the chafing from previous years of countries who suffered under the British empire, I don't think those wounds have quite healed yet. However I don't think there's reason to go too overboard with defence, just be sensible and realistic about the risks presented and take adequate precautions, although I appreciate there is a biiiiiiiig difference in peoples' opinions on what adequate precautions are.
While we're at it, what are peoples' views on China as a potential world threat? Just curious :)
The main thing about China is that various constituent elements don't get along. The Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese military are uncomfortable with each other. The Communist Party rules like a Mafia gang. A reason the economy there is doing well is because the gov keeps wages low. The people see wealth coming in and then going over their heads. The military is hostile to the same gang. They are also very belligerent in their views of the West for various reasons. The ruling gang wants to build up military power for prestige/ambition etc but as the military gets bigger it gets more hostile. Experts view China as unstable domestically.
There have been lots of riots and last years revelation about a party official murdering a British businessman sent shock waves around China. The ruling party is seen as corrupt and feels cornered. If the military dispatches the ruling party you can expect a very belligerent force because they see paying back the West as a patriotic national quest. They have already begun establishing a "blue water" global navy. If it bothers you the US has 11 carrier groups around the world you might not feel much better if China gets its wish to replace that situation.
A more immediate problem is the Mid East. The old strongmen everyone complained about have fallen and now much worse is coming along - as it did in Iran. The roots of current Islamic groups hostile to the West go back to the founding of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1920's - way before Israel existed. Part of their goals has been the removal of civilian leaders dictators etc and reinstituting then Caliphate .
With the Fall of Mubarak and Qaddafi, the transition of Turkey away from a more secular government and the turmoil in Syria groups like Al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood are excited because the barriers to their goals are falling. Add to all that the crisis of Iran going nuclear with clearly hostile intentions and its only a matter of time before the who region goes up. Iran (an ally of current Syrian leader) has promised to strike if the West gets directly involved in the civil war in Syria. The West has been moving in exactly that direction. The Sunni Muslims like in Saudi Arabia don't like the Shia Muslims in Iran and they dont want Iran going nuclear anymore than Israel does.
In Iran the nuclear facilities have been bunkered deep in the earth (with help from the Russians). No jet strike is going to get to them. Experts have predicted the use of tactical nukes. That was published in the papers 3 years ago but it was on the back pages behind the daily celebrity rubbish.
So the Mid East is really like a volcano ready to blow. There are many divisions and hostilities within the region and globally. As the old order disintegrates a Pandora's box is opening up and the West made it worse with all the silly "Arab Spring" stuff and helping all the wrong people to power. In 2001 Muslim Brothers and Al Qaeda were flying planes into buildings in New York and now Obama is sending them weapons in Syria. The whole thing is like a chapter in the suicide of the West.
Domestically Imagine what UK and Europe will be like with oil shipments cut off (France gets like 22% of its oil from Libya, Italy is like 18%). Iran ha promised to block Hormuz. US will probably lose a carrier to missiles. With the huge Muslim populations in Europe the potential for internal strife will be very high. We already saw France burn for a few months and that will look like nothing compared to what is coming.
The West has been very lazy in maintaining itself. Its capacity for self flagellation has invited contemp. Its self indulgence and decay has been at the root of its bankruptcies. Illegitimacy rates are high in the 40%. That's where a lot of money is wasted. UK's spending for military is peanuts (2.6% GDP)- as it is for much of Europe as well. The budget for NHS alone is just over 8% of GDP and then you have education (6%) and pensions etc.
U.S. ambassador: Political situation in China “very, very delicate”
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/po...e ry_delicate
