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Old 06-05-2017, 12:14 AM   #2
Isoverity
 
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Join Date: Mar 2004
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Well just about everyone recognises that North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un is dangerous to just about everyone to one degree or another. He's not rationale or benevolent.

Thankfully Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping hit it off when they met and seem to get along unusually well. They talk for hours on the phone. Xi Jinping knows NK firing missiles at Japan isn't going to lead anywhere good. US and Japan have had a defense agreement since 1952. The Treaty of Westphalia is the only older peace treaty. The treaty with Japan is the reason they don't have nukes - but they could have them practically overnight. China doesn't want Japan to get nukes. They aren't going to defend NK capriciously launching missiles at Japan like they did a few weeks ago .

It seems the NK missile tests were defeated by cyber-ops of some kind. I don't think nations beyond a close range have much to worry about militarily. South Korea is in the most danger. China wouldn't want a large attack since that breeds a large response and NK would fall and people would want to escape to China. China doesn't want refugees and has already massed armies on the border.

I read comments from military people and analysts who say the situation is as serious as anything they've seen in decades. I have no reason to doubt them. Fair to say something is going to happen. I think dispatching NK leader is a top focus. I assume the dispatching him has been getting some effort/planning for awhile. Militarily there's not much threat. NK air force has Russian fighters from the 50s. The long term commitment of NK soldiers is considered weak but that could be wrong and it would be days, weeks before any indications could surface. In any case - bad time to be in Seoul but after that I think the threat drops off outside of something unforeseen (like NK ally Iran).


Last edited by Isoverity : 07-05-2017 at 05:51 AM.


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